Updated: May 2025
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The Economics Division has a population projection system integrated with its economic and labour market forecasts. The system is designed to project the population by age and gender for Newfoundland and Labrador and its various sub-provincial regions, such as economic zones.
The system relies on assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration. These are based on historical trends and modern developments. To account for these unknowns, three different population projection scenarios are prepared for Newfoundland and Labrador. The medium scenario is consistent with the Economics Division’s Budget 2025 economic forecast.
High Scenario Assumptions
- Fertility – The total fertility rate gradually trends up from an estimated rate of 1.08 in 2024 to 1.25 in 2044.
- Mortality – Life expectancies continue to increase in line with recent trends. Male life expectancy increases by 3.5 years between 2024 and 2044. Female life expectancy increases by 2.5 years over the same period.
- Migration – In-migration decreases from around 9,800 in 2024 to around 4,700 in 2025, before increasing to reach a peak of 12,700 in 2031 in response to improved labour market conditions due to the expected development of major projects. In the longer term, in-migration declines as major project developments end. Net migration becomes negative in 2036 before rebounding to average roughly 1,700 by 2044. Net in-migration averages about 4,200 per year over the entire projection period from 2025 to 2044.
Medium Scenario Assumptions
- Fertility – The total fertility rate remains constant near 1.08 over the entire projection period.
- Mortality – Life expectancies continue to increase in line with recent trends in age-specific mortality rates. Male life expectancy increases by 1.9 years between 2024 and 2044. Female life expectancy increases by 1.3 years over the same period.
- Migration – In-migration decreases from around 9,800 in 2024 to around 4,400 in 2025, before increasing to reach a peak of 12,400 in 2031 in response to improved labour market conditions due to the expected development of major projects. In the longer term, in-migration declines as major project developments end. Net migration becomes negative in 2036 before rebounding to average roughly 1,400 by 2044. Net in-migration averages about 3,800 per year over the entire projection period from 2025 to 2044.
Low Scenario Assumptions
- Fertility – The total fertility rate declines from an estimated rate of 1.08 in 2024 to 0.94 in 2044.
- Mortality – Life expectancies continue to increase but at rates slightly below historical trends. Male life expectancy increases by 1.0 years between 2024 and 2044. Female life expectancy increases by 0.7 years over the same period.
- Migration – In-migration decreases from around 9,800 in 2024 to around 4,000 in 2025, before increasing to reach a peak of 12,100 in 2031 in response to improved labour market conditions due to the expected development of major projects. In the longer term, in-migration declines as major project developments end. Net migration becomes negative in 2036 before rebounding to average roughly 1,100 by 2044. Net in-migration averages about 3,500 per year over the entire projection period from 2025 to 2044.